Even if broader markets had already factored in the likelihood of Japan's ruling coalition suffering a loss over the weekend, the reality of it is still something to take in. The Japanese yen opened with a gap higher today before paring most of those gains, but is now pushing back higher again. It's all about digesting the period of political uncertainty in Japan right now.
And more often than not, that tends to lead to a stronger yen - at least initially. But taking in the current predicament, it's going to be a tricky one. Ultimately, the larger trend for the currency is going to be dictated by the BOJ's plans especially on rates.
So if Japan is unable to find much comfort from trade talks with the US, that will continue to distract and push aside the central bank's plans to hike rates again. And that's going to manifest itself into a headwind for the currency in due time. As such, any upside scope for the yen should remain rather limited.
However, what is it that the charts are saying at the moment?
The near-term chart above shows that the latest dip in USD/JPY isn't all too significant. The most significant thing is that sellers have managed to crack below the 100-hour moving average (red line). And that eliminates the more bullish near-term bias in the pair seen throughout July.
However, the 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 147.67 currently still offers a good supportive region for the pair. Hold above that and buyers will still be in it to try and shout back. But if we do break below, then the near-term bias turns more bearish and there is scope for the downside momentum to extend a bit more towards 147.00 next.
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