Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 47 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 25 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 50 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 17 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 65 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 37 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 8 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 15 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We had a few round trips last week with all the inflation and employment data but eventually expectations settled pretty much at the same levels.
Today, we got a slightly more dovish repricing for the RBNZ after the lower than expected NZ CPI data but in the bigger picture it didn't change much.
We are now in a period where we need stronger reasons to materially change expectations.
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