The USDCHF has been riding the broader trend of dollar buying, with the technicals lining up firmly in favor of the buyers.
Last week, the pair broke above both the 100-day MA (0.7889) and the 200-day MA (0.7945), and also pushed through a downward-sloping trendline going back to November 2025. That combination helped shift the longer-term bias more decisively to the upside.
This week, the price extended above a key swing area between 0.7978 and 0.7989, and has been able to hold above that zone—give or take a pip or two. That area is now a critical risk-defining level:
- Stay above = buyers remain firmly in control
- Move below = momentum starts to fade
That said, there is some hesitation near the 0.8000 natural resistance level. The price has stalled twice—on Monday and again today—near 0.8012, establishing a short-term ceiling.
For the bullish case to gain traction:
- A break above 0.8012 would open the door toward the next target near 0.8041, which includes the January 15 high and a topside channel trendline
On the downside:
- A move back below 0.7978 would shift focus toward 0.7957, followed by the 200-day MA at 0.7945
- A break below that cluster would give sellers more confidence and force buyers to reassess
Bottom line:
The bias remains bullish while above 0.7978, but buyers need to get through 0.8012 to extend the trend. Failure to do so risks a corrective pullback.
