As the North American session begins, the US dollar is mostly higher versus the major currency pairs (but off the highs). In the video above, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective ahead of the PCE, durable goods, initial jobless claims all released at 8:30 AM .
- Core PCE for the month of April is expected at 3.3% YoY versus 3.2% last month. The MOM Core PCE is expected at 0.3%. Headline is expected at 0.5% MoM and 3.8% YoY
- Initial jobless claims are expected at 211K versus 209K last week
- Durable goods orders are expected at 3.5% for April versus 0.8% last month. Ex transportation but that is 0.5% versus 0.9%. Nondefense capital expenditures Ex air is expected at 0.4% versus 3.4% preliminary
The 2nd revision to the GDP for Q1 will also be released with expectation of 2.0% vs the 1st cut at 2.0%.
To start the day US stocks are modestly lower with the Dow down -65 points.The S&P is down -12 points and the Nasdaq is down -110 points.
Crude oil is trading up $2.90 as the Middle East War peace effort limb along with steps taken backward today.
The overnight headlines suggests the Iran conflict remains highly unstable, with military tensions still elevated despite ongoing negotiations. Iran accused the U.S. of unauthorized naval movements, while Iranian state media said ships were stopped or turned back before recent U.S. attacks near Bandar Abbas. U.S. CENTCOM confirmed overnight Iranian ballistic missile attacks toward Kuwait and incidents near the Strait of Hormuz, while Kuwait said it retains the right to respond to protect its security. There were also reports of explosions and air defense activity in Kuwait tied to missile and drone threats.At the same time, broader regional risks remain elevated. Israel reportedly carried out targeted strikes in Beirut, while Iran’s leadership continued to emphasize national security and strategic priorities domestically.
