The USDCHF has been trending higher since June 1, with buyers successfully pushing the pair above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages and keeping it there for most of the advance.
Yesterday, the price reached a key swing area target from late March and early April while also testing the natural resistance zone around the 0.8000 level. Sellers initially leaned against that resistance, but it was the announcement of a ceasefire deal that ultimately triggered a sharp move lower. That decline pushed the price below the 100-hour moving average, tilting the bias to the downside in the short term.
However, the sellers could not generate enough momentum to break below the 200-hour moving average, currently near 0.7940. Buyers stepped in ahead of that level, helping the pair rebound. The recovery, though, has stalled below the 100-hour moving average at 0.7977, leaving the pair trapped between the two key technical levels.
As a result, the bias is currently neutral. The market is off the boil after the recent rally, and traders are looking for the next catalyst. For sellers to gain greater control, the price needs to break below and stay below the 200-hour moving average. Conversely, a move back above the 100-hour moving average would shift the focus back toward the recent highs and the 0.8000 resistance area.
In the video, I break down the technical levels guiding USDCHF, highlighting the key risk-defining areas, the targets traders are watching, and what it will take for either buyers or sellers to gain the upper hand.
